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AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin
- Democrats aimed for Vice President Harris to reclaim the White House through traditional strongholds.
- However, Donald Trump made significant gains in three pivotal states, turning them red.
- If she had secured victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris would have clinched the presidency.
Shortly after announcing her presidential bid, Vice President Kamala Harris visited West Allis, Wisconsin. This Milwaukee suburb represented a crucial element in a state where elections are often decided by razor-thin margins.
Throughout her campaign, Harris frequently returned to Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—states that formed part of the “blue wall,” which Democratic candidates consistently won from 1992 to 2012.
The blue wall was breached by Donald Trump in 2016 when he claimed all three states and denied former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton a path to victory. In contrast, Joe Biden managed to win these states again in 2020 with Harris as his running mate.
This election cycle saw a reversal; Trump regained control over all three states and returned to the Oval Office.
A Challenging Road Ahead
ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images
Harris faced narrow defeats across Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin during this election cycle. To win the presidency requires at least 270 Electoral College votes; however, she garnered only 226 compared to Trump’s 312—falling short by 44 electoral votes that could have been obtained from victories in those key states (Michigan: 15 votes; Pennsylvania: 19 votes; Wisconsin: 10 votes).
The results were close: Trump edged out Harris by just over one point in Michigan (49.7% vs. 48.3%), two points in Pennsylvania (50.6% vs. 48.5%), and less than one point in Wisconsin (49.7% vs. 48.8%). These slim margins underscored how even minor shifts can significantly impact electoral outcomes.
Additonally,Harris did not secure any other major swing states this year which made it impossible for her to reach the necessary electoral threshold after losing ground within the blue wall while GOP-leaning areas remained steadfastly loyal to their party’s candidate.
AP Photo/Alex Brandon
Suburban Voter Dynamics Shifted
The Democratic Party entered this election season with hopes of making historic strides among suburban voters who had previously distanced themselves from Trump’s political persona during past elections held between 2018 and 2022.
This time around proved different; unlike Biden’s two-point suburban victory nationally back in 2020 (50% versus 48%), exit polls indicated that Trump gained an advantage among suburban voters this year winning them by four points (51% versus 47%).
In key counties within these battlegrounds such as Oakland County near Detroit or Montgomery County adjacent Philadelphia along with Dane County surrounding Madison—Harris performed admirably but ultimately fell short against Trump’s robust support base found particularly amongst rural populations as well as exurban regions like Waukesha County near Milwaukee or Bucks County closeby Philadelphia where he maintained solid backing even amidst challenges posed elsewhere.
A notable factor contributing towards diminished margins stemmed from increased support garnered by Trump among minority demographics notably Black men & Latinos cutting into what would otherwise be expected leads for Democrats especially within urban centers.
An example includes Oakland County where although she won decisively at ten-point margin compared against Biden’s fourteen-point lead back then—the vice president needed higher numbers here given losses sustained elsewhere including politically competitive Saginaw county now leaning towards him despite having voted Democrat just four years prior!
Additonally,Harris faced backlash regarding Biden’s handling concerning ongoing conflicts abroad particularly affecting Arab American communities residing nearby Dearborn—a city located outside Detroit—as many shifted allegiance towards supporting Republican candidates instead!
EVELYN HOCKSTEIN/POOL/AFP via Getty Images
Union Support Divided Against Her Candidacy
After Joe Biden stepped down late July allowing room for new leadership—Harris embarked upon an intensive107-day campaign aimed primarily at expanding visibility while establishing connections previously held exclusively under presidential authority.
While receiving enthusiastic endorsements from numerous public-sector union leaders along with substantial portions comprising their memberships—it became evident there existed notable non-endorsements stemming specifically Teamsters International Association Fire Fighters wherein many rank-and-file members expressed preference favoringTrump despite previous strongholds established underBiden merely four years ago!
Organized labor remains vital component supporting Democrats across blue-wall regions yet unfortunately HARRIS lacked depth required overcoming advances made towardTrump.
InWisconsin alone TRUMP captured51 percent union households whereas HARRIS managed only49 percent according Edison Research findings!
Although successful securing majority support amongst unions operating bothMichigan(58%-40%)Pennsylvania(54%-45%) still insufficient enough achieve overall victories respective state levels!
Crafting economic messaging tailored directly addressing needs working-class Americans—including union workers herself proved challenging given existing advantages enjoyedbyTRUMP persisting until Election Day itself.
According CNN exit polling data revealed economy ranked foremost concern shared32percent respondents breaking overwhelmingly favorably towardTRUMP80percentagainst19percent opposing views!
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